ODAC News
Sunday 25 March
ODAC - The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
NOTE: As from today, ODAC News will
change from a daily (week day) to biweekly newsletter - Wednesdays and Sundays.
1/ Natural Gas
Consumption in EU25 in 2006 (Eurogas,
Mon 26 Feb)
2/ Claude Mandil’s
Presentation at International Petroleum Week, Feb
2007 (IEA, Mon 12 Feb)
3/ Mortgage meltdown
(Energy Bulletin, Sun 25 Mar)
4/ Giant oil fields and their importance
for future oil production [PhD
Thesis] (Energy Bulletin,
Fri 23 Mar)
5/ UAE has the
fifth largest natural gas reserves in the world
(Al Bawaba [
6/ The race to 100 mpg (CNN, Thu 15 Mar)
7/ EU Biodiesel
Slumps Despite Global Warming Fear (
8/ CORN CAN'T SOLVE OUR
PROBLEM (The
9/ T. Boone Pickens to discuss peak oil
concerns with
10/
1 ton of crude = approx 7.3 barrels of oil (6.6-8.0
bbl. of crude oil with 7.333 bbl. taken as average)
100 million tonnes/year = 2 million barrels/day
(approx)
mbd OR mn b/d OR Mb/d = million barrels per day
mn cf/d OR Mcf/d = million cubic
feet per day
Quotations from articles are now always in this type
of chevron: <<>>
If an ODAC comment is within an article, it will begin
with: ODAC:
where appropriate for clarification.
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1/
Natural Gas Consumption in EU25 in
2006 (Eurogas, Mon 26 Feb)
Press Release from Eurogas:
<<According to preliminary figures and estimates
from Eurogas, total natural gas consumption in EU25
has decreased by 1,1% in 2006 in comparison to 2005.
In 2006, natural gas consumption in EU25 amounted to
18 963 peta joule (PJ), i.e. 486 billion cubic metres
(BCM)1, i.e. 408 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE)2, when in 2005 it had
reached 19 182 PJ / 492 BCM / 412 MTOE.
... In contrast to the trend observed in the last few
years, the EU25 natural gas consumption registered a 1,1% decrease between 2005
and 2006. Although the natural gas markets of the different countries vary
significantly, some general trends across
... The United-Kingdom has seen a drop of 5% in its
consumption, reflecting in particular the impact of higher gas prices which
reduced the gas consumption for power generation.
... Indigenous production in the EU25 has decreased by
4,9% to 7 555 PJ (194 Bcm) over the period. Although some countries such as
The highest percentage of gas supplied in the EU25
comes from indigenous production, covering 38% of the total net supplies in
2006. The main external sources of supply are Russia with 24%, Norway with 17%,
and Algeria 10%, followed by Egypt, Nigeria and Libya covering 2% each and the
Gulf countries and Trinidad Tobago representing 1% each. Between 2005 and 2006,
the imports from
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2/ Claude
Mandil’s Presentation at International Petroleum
Week, Feb 2007 (IEA, Mon 12 Feb)
http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2007/mandil/london_ip.pdf
This is the PowerPoint presentation that Claude Mandil
gave at the London-based Energy Institute’s annual
gathering called International Petroleum Week.
Below is slide 3.The slide heading implies that the
chart shows ‘OPEC spare capacity’ but it is in fact global supply growth combined with OPEC capacity growth. Note
that by 2011 growth is down to 1 Mb/d. The problems with such a small growth
are numerous. For example, the chart shows growth for 2006 to be about 1.4
Mb/d. This was about 1Mb/d too high, mainly due to project slippage. But
project slippage will probably last for years – ‘sustained investment’ cannot
solve one of the principal problems, a shortage of workers. Remember, Booz Allen Hamilton have just issued a report, a review
article of which states: “it is obvious that the industry faces a crisis in the
next 7 to 10 years as more than half of the employee base leaves the work force”
(Energy sector lacks energy, talent).
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3/
Mortgage meltdown (Energy Bulletin,
Sun 25 Mar)
http://www.energybulletin.net/27744.html
Various articles from the
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4/
Giant oil fields and their importance for future oil production [PhD
Thesis] (Energy Bulletin, Fri 23 Mar)
http://www.energybulletin.net/27491.html
Energy Bulletin reports on a Swedish PhD available on
the internet. As opposed to UK PhDs which are usually ‘defended’ in secret with
two examiners, one internal and one external (to the university of the
student), Swedish PhDs are defended in public against one individual (I
believe). The individual in this case is Robert Hirsch. Follow Energy Bulletin
to get to the PhD. Good source of info.
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5/ UAE
has the fifth largest natural gas reserves in the world (Al Bawaba
[
http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/UAE/211210
An interesting headline. Why ? The “UAE has the fifth
largest natural gas reserves in the world”, but it is desperate for imports of
natural gas. As the article states:
<< The Dolphin Project is a US$3.5bn pipeline project to
supply the
I have heard from
In summary: the UAE has the world’s
fifth largest natural gas reserves and it imports gas from Qatar, reaching full
capacity in the autumn if all goes well, and that is probably a pretty big if –
Dolphin is delayed already, and the UAE might still be short of gas
(principally due to the phenomenal growth in Dubai). This is not a good news
story.
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6/ The
race to 100 mpg (CNN, Thu 15 Mar)
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/03/09/cars.100mpg.popsci/index.html
I am a bit sceptical about the general public buying
cars that do 100 mpg. I have been driving a Suzuki Alto for the last three
years since I bought it brand new. That I am aware of, it is the most
fuel-efficient petrol car on the
<<Over the past several decades, the promise of
the "car of tomorrow" has remained unfulfilled, while the problems it
was supposed to solve have only intensified.
The average price of a gallon of gas is higher than at
any time since the early 1980s. The
To these circumstances, automakers have responded with
a fleet of cars that averages 21 miles per gallon, about 4 mpg worse than the
Model T.
Yet hope is coming faster than that hydrogen economy
you've been hearing about. Several small companies are developing new engine
technologies and advanced automotive designs that promise to deliver 100 miles
from a single gallon of gas. The proposals run from the simple -- reduce
weight, improve aerodynamics -- to the incredible (one company wants to borrow
a few tricks from jet engines)… >>
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7/ EU Biodiesel Slumps Despite Global Warming
Fear (
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/41070/story.htm
Biofuels in
<<The European Union biodiesel
industry is working well under capacity despite top-level political moves to
increase biofuels use to combat global warming, industry executives said.
Many new biodiesel plants
have been built but many hardly have a market as several countries have been
slow to implement promises to increase biofuel use.
"We have been promised a market but it is not yet
there," said Raffaello Garofalo,
secretary general of industry association the European Biofuels Board (EBB).
"It will come but in the short term we have to go through a desert."
Much of
Biodiesel
sales in the biggest consuming country
[main part of article. Ends with:]
...
The company, which operates a 250,000-tonnes-a-year
plant in north England, has seen its stock price fall to around 15 pence
compared with over 200 pence in May last year.
Another key producer D1 Oils has also said it is
operating below capacity due to difficult market conditions and many in the
sector were disappointed that
"It seems to us profoundly odd that the industry
should be turning off the biofuels production tap and delaying the installation
of capacity just as the government is introducing the RTFO (Renewable Transport
Fuel Obligation ) to bring in biofuel blends to reduce the growing levels of
carbon emissions from transport," D1 Oils CEO Elliott Mannis
said.
Britain is phasing in a Renewable Transport Fuel
Obligation, mandating that from April 2008 biofuels must make up at least 2.5
percent of oil company sales.>>
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8/
CORN CAN'T SOLVE OUR PROBLEM (The
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/23/AR2007032301625.html
Articles on Biofuels are occurring in the media more
often, and they generally tend to be of a negative nature. The energy returned
on energy invested is not good at temperate latitudes (USA, Europe), and now
food prices are increasing, although one might hazard a guess we have not seen
anything yet as the USA continues to grow more corn for ethanol. The authors of
this article suggest planting plants other than corn in the
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9/ T.
Boone Pickens to discuss peak oil concerns with
http://www.mywesttexas.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18124970&BRD=2288&PAG=461&dept_id=474107&rfi=6
T. Boone Pickens thinks that global oil production has
peaked, and he is going to give a presentation on Peak Oil on 4th
April:
<<…Will your concerns about peak oil be the
focus of your visit to
I'll talk about world oil peaking, yes. I believe that
to be the case, that 85 million barrels a day is the best the world can do. I
think we'll be tested in the fourth quarter of this year. Oil demand globally
should be 86-87 million barrels a day. Now, that's if the global economy holds
up. If the global economy declines any, oil demand should ease. If demand
continues to strengthen, prices will move higher and could reach $70 a barrel.
... Does your concern about peak oil take into account
technological advances?
Technological advances to produce oil are probably
better than technological advances to find oil. There's not many more big pools
of oil to be found.
What about plays like the Barnett Shale?
I'm in the Barnett Shale. They're not wells like we used
to drill; you punch a hole in the ground and gas comes out. Some make good
wells, some don't.
... How is this current 'boom' different from the last
oil boom of the late 1970s, early 1980s?
Back in the last boom, production hadn't peaked. Now
it's peaked; this is the peak. Back then, OPEC just took oil off the market.
Now, OPEC can't take oil off the market. OPEC is producing all-out. It feels
the same, but the dynamics are different...>>
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10/
Yergin giving a super-optimistic scenario to the U.S.
House Committee on Foreign Affairs last Thursday. Some of the figures are
mind-boggling:
“
“
“Iraq No. 4, with output forecast to grow to 5.5
million from 2.6 million” – Probably technically possible, but with a civil war
going on?
“
<<Canada has been ranked fifth in a new global
oil grouping unveiled Thursday by an independent energy analyst in testimony in
Washington to the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Called Oil-15, or O-15, the new order put together by
Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, includes all
OPEC states — barring Indonesia — and includes five others that have the
highest potential to increase supplies by 2015. Besides
“It is a straight forward grouping of producers that
are planning major investments and do not necessarily have a political agenda,”
Guy Caruso, administrator of Washington-based watchdog Energy Information
Administration, said in an interview.
Next came
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