ODAC News – Mon 12 Mar

 

1/   Ethanol-driven feed costs cut U.S. meat output: USDA            (Yahoo! News [Reuters], Sun 11 Mar)

2/   The new Seven Sisters: oil and gas giants dwarf western rivals (The Financial Times, Sun 11 Mar)

3/   Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm          (The Oil Drum, Sun 11 Mar)

4/   German radio programme on Peak Oil in the USA       (WDR 5 hören,  Mar 18/19)

5/   Kuwait determined to expand capacity to 4 million b/d: official  (Platts, Mon 12 Mar)

6/   The Russian-Iranian Energy Relationship        (Middle East Economic Survey, Mon 12 Mar)

7/   Growing costs ‘put Shetland oilfield plans in jeopardy’ (The Times [UK], Mon 12 Mar)

 

1 ton of crude = approx 7.3 barrels of oil (6.6-8.0 bbl. of crude oil with 7.333 bbl. taken as average)

100 million tonnes/year = 2 million barrels/day (approx)

mbd OR mn b/d OR Mb/d = million barrels per day

mn cf/d OR Mcf/d = million cubic feet per day

 

Quotations from articles are now always in this type of chevron: <<>>

If an ODAC comment is within an article, it will begin with:  ODAC:            where appropriate for clarification.

 

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1/         Ethanol-driven feed costs cut U.S. meat output: USDA      (Yahoo! News [Reuters], Sun 11 Mar)

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070311/sc_nm/usa_crops_dc_1

 

<< High feed costs, created by the explosive growth of the fuel ethanol industry, will lower U.S. beef and broiler chicken output this year by a quarter billion lbs from earlier forecasts, the U.S. government said on Friday. 

 

... The Agriculture Department said beef output would dip by 62 million lbs and chicken by 124 million lbs from last month's estimate, with total red meat and poultry production forecast for 90.359 billion lbs. Cattle, hog and poultry feeders say abrupt increases in feed costs -- predominantly corn -- are squeezing their operations.

 

Producers will send fewer animals to slaughter and at lower prices this year, said USDA. Both are ways to use less feed. Corn prices have doubled since last fall. The ethanol industry is expected to use 2.15 billion bushels of the 2006 corn crop and 3.2 billion bushels of this year's crop.

 

"The decline in beef carcass weights reflects several factors, including higher feed costs, harsh winter weather and higher-than-expected first quarter beef slaughter," said USDA. Based on low slaughter numbers in January, broiler output was expected to fall in the first half of this year but rebound in the final half.

 

It was the second month in a row that USDA lowered its forecast for beef and broiler production in 2007. In February, it reduced its beef estimate by 60 million lbs, saying "relatively high grain prices will encourage cattle to remain on grass longer" and result in lower beef production. USDA shaved its broiler forecast by 163 million lbs because fewer chicks were being hatched... >>

 

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2/         The new Seven Sisters: oil and gas giants dwarf western rivals       (The Financial Times, Sun 11 Mar)

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/471ae1b8-d001-11db-94cb-000b5df10621.html

 

<<When an angry Enrico Mattei coined the phrase “the seven sisters” to describe the Anglo-Saxon companies that controlled the Middle East’s oil after the second world war, the founder of Italy’s modern energy industry could not have imagined the profound shift in power that would occur barely half a century later.

 

As oil prices have trebled over the past four years, a new group of oil and gas companies has risen to prominence. They have consolidated their power as aggressive resource holders and seekers and pushed the world’s biggest listed energy groups, which emerged out of the original seven sisters – ExxonMobil and Chevron of the US and Europe’s BP and Royal Dutch Shell – on to the sidelines and into an existential crisis.

 

The “new seven sisters”, or the most influential energy companies from countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, have been identified by the Financial Times in consultation with numerous industry executives. They are Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom, CNPC of China, NIOC of Iran, Venezuela’s PDVSA, Brazil’s Petrobras and Petronas of Malaysia.

 

Overwhelmingly state-owned, they control almost one-third of the world’s oil and gas production and more than one-third of its total oil and gas reserves. In contrast, the old seven sisters – which shrank to four in the industry consolidation of the 1990s – produce about 10 per cent of the world’s oil and gas and hold just 3 per cent of reserves. Even so, their integrated status – which means they sell not only oil and gas, but also gasoline, diesel and petrochemicals – push their revenues notably higher than those of the newcomers.

 

Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy, an industry consultancy, says: “The reason the original seven sisters were so important was that they were the rule makers; they controlled the industry and the markets. Now, these new seven sisters are the rule makers and the international oil companies are the rule takers.” ...>>

 

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3/         Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm   (The Oil Drum, Sun 11 Mar)

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2348

 

A fairly short article:

 

<<When a fire becomes sufficiently intense, its heat creates a rising column of air so strong that surrounding air is drawn into the void, creating a draft that sustains and intensifies the fire. It becomes a self-sustaining, self-intensifying organism: a firestorm. The violence in Nigeria’s delta region has become a firestorm, and the consequences of this transformation will fundamentally impact that nation’s ability to export oil. Recent events in the delta region have transitioned the violence there from a negative-feedback loop where there was a disincentive to militants to shut in too high a portion of Nigeria’s oil exports to a positive-feedback loop where militants will compete to completely destroy Nigeria’s capacity to export oil...>>

 

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4/         German radio programme on Peak Oil in the USA (WDR 5 hören,  Mar 18/19)

 

http://www.wdr5.de/sendungen/feature/855366.phtml

 

Paul Nellen writes from Germany:

 

<<Here's my new radio show (54 minutes) on current Peak Oil discussions in the USA ("Out of Oil - American strategies and concepts for the period after oil"). It can be heard on the Internet as a WDR (Westdeutscher Rundfunk/West German Radio) LIVESTREAM (no podcast available) during the program's airing on Sunday, March 18, 11:05 a.m. German Time, or on Monday, 19.3., 08:05 p.m. German time. The link to the livestream tool is below the radio pic on this website ("WDR 5 hören").

 

German speaking ODAC info readers might be perhaps interested to listen to it.>>

 

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5/         Kuwait determined to expand capacity to 4 million b/d: official        (Platts, Mon 12 Mar)

 

http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/8929272.xml?p=Oil/News&sub=Oil&src=energybulletin

 

“The first component is expanding production capacity to the 4 million target from around 2.8 million b/d currently”. An extra 1.2 Mb/d over 13 years does not seem so cheery as the headline makes out – how much new oil production will the world need over the same time frame – 30-50 Mb/d ? And what will happen to Kuwait’s oil depletion rate over the same time period ? No mention of the parliamentarians who want to put a halt to expanding production – we have heard nothing from them for a year now ? Kuwait raising its production to 4 Mb/d does not make sense anyway. It is a tiny country with a tiny population, why blow it all as fast as it can ? And what happened to the 10 billion barrel oil field the Kuwaitis said they found last year ? :

 

<<OPEC producer Kuwait is determined to proceed with an $8 billion project to raise the crude oil production capacity of its northern fields to 900,000 b/d with the help of foreign oil companies as part of a plan to raise overall capacity to 4 million b/d by 2010, a senior Kuwaiti oil official said Monday.

 

"We recognize that worldwide energy consumption is projected to increase by almost 50% in the next quarter century, and most of these additional barrels of oil are to come from the Gulf producers," Nawaf al-Sabah, deputy managing director and general counsel of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, told an energy conference.

 

"To meet this challenge, we are implementing a business strategy that will take us to the year 2020 and beyond," he said, adding that this strategy was made up of four components, including the expansion of state-owned KPC's international operations.

 

The first component is expanding production capacity to the 4 million target from around 2.8 million b/d currently, Sheikh Nawaf said.

 

"This four million b/d figure would match the production figures from the mid-1970s, but while the oil production at that time came solely from easy to produce reservoirs, the incremental production that would take us to 4 million b/d by 2020 is slated to come from difficult reservoirs," he explained at the seminar organized by the Baker Institute and devoted to the results of a study on national oil companies… >>

 

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6/         The Russian-Iranian Energy Relationship  (Middle East Economic Survey, Mon 12 Mar)

 

http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/v50n11-5OD01.htm

 

<<Are Russia and Iran, with 20% and nearly 50% of the globe’s proven oil and gas reserves, likely to develop a policy of coordination of production and exports, potentially influencing global prices and/or supply, to the detriment of energy consumers?  In a world where energy importing countries are newly concerned about security of global supply, this has become a legitimate question.

 

This author would argue that if one examines past history, current Russian and Iranian national interests, and the complexities surrounding their modern bilateral relations, it is difficult to envision Russia and Iran being inclined, or even able, to create an alliance to coordinate their oil and gas output and exports.

 

It is fundamental to remember that Russia and Iran have long been historical rivals.  For both the Soviet Union and successor state Russia, Persian-Muslim Iran was neither a client state nor a close ally. The consequences of this competitive historical relationship can still be felt today.   And while both countries have, since 1991, forged solid, growing, state-to-state relations, and in some cases relations of mutual dependency, their overall energy relationship is marked by competition, friction, and ambiguity. Further, relations are mainly regionally focused, centered on the Caucasus/Caspian Sea and Middle East areas and include some very divergent market positions.   A main feature of Moscow’s interactions with Iran have been to further advance Russian interests in these two geographic areas which Iran straddles, the Caspian Sea and Middle East.

 

[main part of article. Last paragraph: ]

 

... One element influencing Russian-Iranian bilateral relations, if inadvertently, is the US sanctions policy towards Iran which appears to be having the consequence of moving Russia and Iran into closer cooperation. Russia and Iran both seek to assert their independent foreign policy as a counter to US policy. At the same time, US dependence on imported gas is growing significantly and is the world’s fastest-growing market for LNG. Given Moscow’s and Tehran’s massive aggregate holdings in oil and gas reserves, and recognizing the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of their bilateral relations, as well as the low likelihood of their aligning export production policies, it would seem prudent for energy importing nations to view them, amongst other issues, in a strategic, long-term, energy supply perspective. >>

 

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7/         Growing costs ‘put Shetland oilfield plans in jeopardy’       (The Times [UK], Mon 12 Mar)

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article1499942.ece

 

<<The accelerating cost of producing oil and gas from new frontiers is hindering the development of vital reserves west of Shetland, one of the world’s top oil barons claims.

 

Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive of Total, France’s largest company, has also questioned whether it is possible to raise global oil output from today’s 85 million barrels per day to 100 million barrels per day, given the cost and logistical challenge. Addressing the Scottish Oil Clubs on Friday night, Mr de Margerie said that he had warned Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, that the development of high-pressure and high-temperature oil and gasfields in the North Sea was in doubt without tax incentives.

 

He said: “These fields are extremely difficult to produce. The cost of developing fields is so high that, given existing gas prices, these new fields are marginal.”

 

... Analysts at Merrill Lynch, the investment bank, said: “UK natural gas is now one of the cheapest hydrocarbons on the planet.” Merrill also forecast that the low cost of UK gas, about $3 per million BTU compared with almost $8 per million BTU in America, would cause shipments of liquefied gas destined for Britain to be redirected to US ports.

 

... Mr de Margerie repeated his scepticism about International Energy Agency (IEA) predictions of oil output of 120 million barrels per day by 2030. “There is no chance,” he said.

 

Further warnings about the impact of rising costs on the oil and gas industry came last week from the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), which revealed that nonOpec oil production last year rose by only 450,000 barrels per day, a fraction of the 1.5 million bpd predicted by forecasters.

 

“The oil industry is finding it harder and harder to expand upstream capacity,” the CGES writes in its Global Oil Report. “Development costs are up sharply, essential equipment and skilled labour are in short supply and governments want a bigger share of the proceeds. As a result, projects take longer to complete and output is growing more slowly than predicted.” >>

 

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