ODAC News
Wednesday 17 Oct
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Oilwatch Monthly
1/ Oilwatch Monthly - October 2007
(The Oil Drum:
ASPO-6 DVDs / Presentations
2a/ ASPO-6 DVD Set Now Available
to Order (ASPO
2b/ ASPO-6 Presentations Now
Available Online (ASPO
Oil Supplies / Prices
3a/ Platts Economist Sees
Tighter Oil Supplies Ahead (CNN News [DOW JONES NEWSWIRES],
Mon 15 Oct)
3b/ Crude oil jumps to
all-time high above $86 amid fears on supplies
(Financial Times, Tue 16 Oct)
3c/ Oil to soar above $90 next
year says expert (Gulf Daily News, Tue 09 Oct)
3d/ OPEC Basket Crude Price
Surpasses $80 a Barrel for First Time
(Bloomberg, Wed 17 Oct)
3e/ OECD Oil Inventories Stay
Flat As Winter Approaches
(Energy Intelligence [Energy Intelligence Briefing], Wed 17 Oct)
3f/ LEADER: A world of dear
oil (Financial Times, Wed 17 Oct)
Food Prices
4/ Food prices to treble
in five years: CBH
(Stock Journal [
Natural Gas / LNG -
5a/ Concern rises over health
of Qatari gas reserves
(Financial Times, Tue 16 Oct)
5b/ Dolphin Project Exporting
Over 1Bn CFD, Seen At 2Bn CFD By End-March (
Geopolitics and Peak Oil
6/ Geopolitical Feedback
Loops in Peak Oil (The Oil Drum, Wed 03
Oct)
Economics -
7a/ Third of mortgage
applications denied
(Telegraph, Tue 16 Oct)
7b/ This bear is not capitulating
(The Telegraph, Tue 16 Oct)
7c/ 'UK banks have little
buffer for a downturn' (The Independent, Wed
17 Oct)
Coal Prices
8/ Coal for Europe
Delivery Next-Year Reaches Record Before Talks
(Bloomberg, Tue 16 Oct)
Natural Gas –
9/ Gazprom as a
Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and
Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises
(Institut français des
relations internationales, March 2007)
DVD Review - A Crude Awakening
10/ Waking up to the truths of oil’s past, present and future
(Lloyd’s List, Fri 12 Oct)
New Thesis on Russian Oil Production
11/ Russian Oil - a Depletion
Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export
(Aram Mäkivierikko, Oct
2007)
Peak
12a/ Facing the looming
energy crisis (iafrica.com, Mon 15 Oct)
12b/ Conference: Preparing
Southern Africa for Global Oil Depletion,
**********************************************************************************************************
1/ Oilwatch Monthly - October 2007 (The Oil Drum:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3087#more
Comment: This months edition of Rembrandt
Koppelaar’s Oilwatch Monthly. Rembrandt starts off
with a brief discussion of whether or not peak in conventional oil production has
occurred yet. He suggests not, this is consistent with Chris Skrebowski’s latest MegaProjects data (http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/MegaProjects_Feb2007.pdf,
PDF, 79 Kb) and IEA forecasts.
Article: The October edition of
Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.48 MB, 21
pp).
Latest Developments:
1) Crude oil - Latest available figures from the
Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production
including lease condensates increased by 455,000 b/d from June to July. Total
production in July was estimated at 73.28 million b/d, which is 1.01 million
b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d
reached in May 2005.
2) Total liquids - In September world production of
total liquids increased by 450,000 barrels per day from August according to the
latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total
world liquids production of 85.10 million b/d, which is 1.03 million b/d lower
than the all time maximum liquids production of 86.13 million b/d reached in
July 2006.
3) Status of the production plateau - Both the
International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA)
figures show that global liquids production has been on a plateau since 2005.
The IEA figures result in an average global production in 2007 up to September
of 85.03 million b/d, almost to the same as the average 2006 production of
85.00 million b/d and higher than the average 2005 production of 84.10 million
b/d. The EIA puts the average global 2007 production up to July at 84.40
million b/d, slightly lower than the average 2006 production of 84.60 million
b/d and the average 2005 production of 84.63 million b/d.
[From the report, Introduction, “Did the production of
conventional cheap oil peak in 2005?”]
As more months pass by, we shall see that
The bottom line is, that it is too early to tell
whether we have passed the peak in conventional crude oil production. A
rebound, appears to be in the making.
**********************************************************************************************************
2a/ ASPO-6 DVD Set Now Available to Order
(ASPO
Details: We've captured the entire
ASPO6 Conference on a 5 DVD boxset.
Each session is captured on a single DVD.
The fifth DVD contains bonus interviews with the
conference speakers carried out during the conference.
You can watch a short trailer of the conference
DVD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ia-sk1OqHk&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Easpo%2Direland%2Eorg%2F
Order: http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm/page/shop
2b/ ASPO-6 Presentations Now Available Online (ASPO
http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm/page/presentations
**********************************************************************************************************
3a/ Platts Economist Sees Tighter Oil Supplies Ahead
(CNN News [DOW JONES
NEWSWIRES], Mon 15 Oct)
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200710151050DOWJONESDJONLINE000404_FORTUNE5.htm
Comment: This forecast from Platts is
consistent with the IEA and Chris Skrebowski’s
MegaProjects data.
Article: Platts Chief Economist Larry Chorn Monday said he expects a tighter supply and demand
balance in oil within three years, based on the amount of spending on oil field
development in 2005.
"The fact that the industry fell behind in 2005
investment, the most recent year that complete data is available, means there
will likely be a continued tight supply demand balance in and beyond 2010, in
spite of a 70% percent investment increase in 2005 over 2000," Chorn said.
The Platts study shows that the shortfall in 2005
could lead to an 800,000- barrel-a-day reduction in anticipated spare capacity
within three years. This shortfall could grow to 4 million barrels a day in
2011 as existing fields continue to decline and demand rises.
3b/ Crude oil jumps to all-time high above $86 amid fears on supplies
(Financial Times, Tue 16 Oct)
http://search.ft.com/nonFtArticle?id=071016000003&ct=0
Article: Crude oil prices yesterday
jumped to an all-time high above $86 a barrel amid warnings of tight supplies
ahead of the winter peak in demand for energy.
The threat of a Turkish military operation against
Kurdish guerrillas in northern
Francisco Blanch, chief commodities strategist at
Merrill Lynch, said an early winter cold snap or a serious geopolitical problem
in the
In
Robust demand from developing countries, led by
That has left the market "running a lofty
deficit" ahead of a peak in consumption during the northern hemisphere
winter, said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital.
… Julian Lee, of the Centre for Global Energy Studies,
said that the cartel should take action immediately to increase further its
production without waiting for its December meeting.
Traders are braced for further geopolitical tension as
the Turkish parliament is expected to approve tomorrow a motion that gives
The
3c/ Oil to soar above $90 next year says expert
(Gulf Daily News, Tue 09 Oct)
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=196201&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=30203
Comment: The importance of this
article is not so much what it says, but who is saying it. A contact in the
Article: Oil prices will soar above
$90 per barrel next year, a Bahraini economist has predicted.
Bahrain Economic Society senior economist Mohammed Habib Ali told the GDN that a combination of the growth of
economies such as
He also said it was time GCC countries used their high
surpluses to fund renewable energy projects and begin moves to end fuel
subsidies in the region. "Oil will reach above $90 next year and the
problem is not politics or economics as much as it is geology," he said. "Oil
by many estimates has reached its peak and both production and the number of
new oilfields found are decreasing - but at the same time world population is
growing and is estimated to reach its peak around 2030.
"Therefore we can only gather that we will
witness prices continue to shoot up in the next few decades to come unless the
world economy goes through a tough economic depression or a breakthrough in
some competitive alternative energy is found leading to immediate and sudden
adopting of its usage - something which at the moment you would say appears
very unlikely," he added.
... The economist warned that the top five net oil
exporters -
"Net exports are decreasing due to major
exporting countries consuming more of their own oil, hence the need to abolish
subsidies and think of innovative ways to conserve energy within those
countries. People in these countries continue to consume more of it because
they are consuming it for cheaper relative to all other commodities that are
rising in price. People are just going to abuse this more and more," he
said. That's why countries such as
"I am not for abolishing it all at once, but I
believe there should be a gradual letting go. You cannot let go of anything
suddenly - that would just shock the economy and that is not the right thing to
go with anything. They should do something with the subsidy money such as
invest more into renewable energy. This money should go into something very
much constructive and productive."
The consequences of higher oil prices for countries
like
3d/ OPEC Basket Crude Price Surpasses $80 a Barrel for First Time
(Bloomberg, Wed 17 Oct)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aAKJbC6Z4lL8&refer=energy
Article: The benchmark crude oil price
for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose members supply
more than 40 percent of the world's oil, rose above $80 a barrel for the first
time.
The so-called OPEC Basket price rose to $80.82 a
barrel yesterday from $78.76 the day before, OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat
said by e-mail today. The price is a weighted average of one export crude oil
from each of OPEC's 12 members.
3e/ OECD Oil Inventories Stay Flat As Winter Approaches
(Energy Intelligence [Energy Intelligence Briefing], Wed 17 Oct)
No link, from newsletter.
Article: OECD commercial stocks ended
the third quarter flat compared with the second quarter, which, with winter
approaching, signals that tanks are somewhat malnourished, especially when it
comes to products, says EIB sister publication Oil Market Intelligence. Though
the cushion is still very close to the five-year average, the trend is that the
buffer is getting thinner instead of fatter, with September preliminarily seen
shedding both crude and product volumes.
3f/ LEADER: A world of dear oil
(Financial Times, Wed 17 Oct)
http://search.ft.com/nonFtArticle?id=071017000301&ct=0
Comment: One of the editorials in today’s
Article: For most of the past 35
years, reports of the oil price touching record highs would have politicians
hitting the panic button and journalists cranking out tales of crisis.
But although oil prices were nudging $88 a barrel
yesterday, it was difficult to detect any great sense of foreboding. Stock
markets traded lower, but not dramatically so. In continental Europe, the
Today, the International Monetary Fund unveils its
latest forecast for world growth next year. Leaks suggest forecast growth will
be revised down from 5.2 per cent previously, but remain solid.
Yet $88 a barrel for oil is not a trivial sum. In
real, inflation-adjusted terms, the oil price has been closing on the all-time
highs recorded in 1980 after the Islamic Revolution in
And the world would do well to expect firm oil prices
in the future. The latest upsurge has been linked to fears of
Admittedly, the pricing of oil in US dollars gives a
very imperfect picture of its true cost in many parts of the world. Priced in
euros, sterling or renminbi, oil has still to reach
highs recorded in July and August last year.
In dollar terms, however, the oil price has touched
new highs. This should encourage a less profligate use of energy in the
The US Department of Energy this month forecast rising
heating bills for US households this winter, ranging from 10 per cent more for
households using natural gas to 22 per cent more for those using heating oil.
The DoE expects some oil price fall, but not below $70
a barrel. Add the subprime crisis and the IMF's view,
expressed this week, that the US dollar could depreciate further and it is
difficult to see higher oil prices leaving the
**********************************************************************************************************
4/ Food prices to treble in five years: CBH
(Stock Journal [
http://sj.farmonline.com.au/news_daily.asp?ag_id=46138
Comment: CBH “Who We Are” (http://www.cbh.com.au/index.html) :
“The Western Australian based CBH Group stores, handles and markets grain. The
WA harvest averages ten million tonnes annually, of which 95 per cent is exported,
and represents up to 40 per cent of the nation’s
average annual production. The CBH Group is a leading grains industry
organisation, marketing grain to over 20 export destinations and with a total
storage capacity in excess of 19 million tonnes.”
Article: Food prices will treble in
the next three to five years as world grain stocks decline to their lowest
levels in history, CBH chief executive, Imre Mencshelyi, has warned.
Mr Mencshelyi says world
grain stocks are starting to run out while supplies are shrinking, creating the
greatest crisis in 50 years and threatening to curtail the emerging biofuels
industry.
"On the one hand you've got the biofuels industry
pushing grain prices higher, but on the other, questions are being asked about
where the focus should be — energy or feeding the populations?" he said.
"There is evidence in
"But the questions need answering because
declining food stocks and higher prices also will affect meat and dairy."
While consumers might be aghast at food price rises,
it was CBH's view that the world was feeding itself
too cheaply, Mr Mencshelyi said.
"Higher feed prices for producers should
translate to higher prices for consumers," he said.
"Either producers get the right price or, for
example, consumers don't get milk.
"Bread and meat also are so cheap and I think
that by Christmas this year they will cost more."
SOURCE: Extract from Farm Weekly, WA, October 11
issue.
**********************************************************************************************************
5a/ Concern rises over health of Qatari gas reserves
(Financial Times, Tue 16 Oct)
http://search.ft.com/nonFtArticle?id=071016000114&ct=0
Comment: An excellent and timely
review of the state of natural gas reserves / liquefied natural gas exports
from
Article: Concerns are growing in
industry circles that
The tiny Gulf kingdom expects to more than double its
exports to 77m tonnes per year by 2011 on the back of multi-billion dollar
projects awaiting completion. Such increases are vital to meet the surging
global demand for LNG, which will increase in importance in the overall gas
market in the coming years.
But the government placed a moratorium on further
expansion of LNG and other gas products in 2005 when it became clear that the
North Field, Qatar's giant offshore gas field, was not as geologically sound as
initially assumed. A decision on whether to lift the moratorium will only be
taken in 2010 once a geological assessment of the North Field is completed,
says Ibrahim Ibrahim, an economic adviser to
However, industry officials are expressing reservations
now about whether the North Field could sustain additional LNG phases, or
"trains", beyond those already commissioned.
… Industry analysts point out that
… As such it has fallen to
"There is a powerful message for global LNG. If
the growth does not come from
Pat Davies, chief executive of the South African
energy company Sasol, says this has contributed to
gas supply issues for Sasol's gas-to-liquids project
with Qatar Petroleum, which uses a different technology to LNG. "The truth
is that gas supply has become tighter in
The tight supply conditions demonstrate there is
relatively little room for manoeuvre if the assessment of the North Field
confirms suspicions that the reservoir is not as prolific as once assumed…
5b/ Dolphin Project Exporting Over 1Bn CFD, Seen At 2Bn CFD By End-March
(
No link, from newsletter
Comment: Last week, MEES (Middle East
Economic Survey) reported that the Dolphin project (natural gas exports from
Answer is "NO".
Article: The Dolphin project is
delivering over 1bn cfd of gas for export from
**********************************************************************************************************
6/ Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Peak Oil
(The Oil Drum, Wed 03 Oct)
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3017
Comment: Jeff Vail discusses
geopolitical events and Peak Oil. The central theme is that in addition to the
general perception that geopolitical events (think Iran, Iraq, Venezuela,
Nigeria) could bring forward the date of Peak, the fact that we are near Peak,
and global oil demand is beginning to outstrip supply, is affecting geopolitical
events.
Article: It is quite common to hear
experts explain that the current tight oil markets are due to “above-ground
factors,” and not a result of a global peaking in oil production. In reality,
geological peaking is driving the geopolitical events that constitute the most
significant “above-ground factors” such as the chaos in
Existing peaking models are based on the logistic
curves demonstrated by past peaking in individual fields or oil producing
regions. Global peaking is an entirely different phenomenon—the
geology behind the logistic curves is the same, but global peaking will create
far greater geopolitical side-effects, even in regions with stable or rising
oil production. As a result, these geopolitical side-effects of peaking global
production will accelerate the rate of production decline, as well as increase
the impact of that production decline by simultaneously increasing marginal
demand pressures. The result: the right side of the global oil production curve
will not look like the left…whatever logistic curve
is fit to the left side of the curve (where historical production increased),
actual declines in the future will be sharper than that curve would predict.
Here are five geopolitical processes, each a
positive-feedback loop, and each an accelerant of declining oil production...
**********************************************************************************************************
7a/ Third of mortgage applications denied
(Telegraph, Tue 16 Oct)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/16/nmgage116.xml&DCMP=EMC-new_16102007
Comment: Still no obvious sign of a
fall in
Article: Almost one in three mortgage
applicants have been rejected by lenders in the past six months as the credit
crunch takes its toll on home buyers.
Banks and building societies are not only increasing
the rates they charge home buyers, they are also tightening their lending, as
they try to recover lost profits from the fall-out of the turmoil in the
financial markets.
In the latest sign that the credit crunch is hitting
ordinary consumers and not only City bankers, an estimated 372,000 of the 1.2
million people applying for a mortgage or re-mortgage in the past six months
have been rejected.
This is a sharp increase on the estimated 230,000
people – or one in five applicants – that had their requests for a loan turned
down in the six months to March, says research by Moneyexpert,
a website that compares financial products.
Official data has shown for some time that the number
of mortgage approvals has been slowing, but most experts suggested this was
because fewer buyers were able to get on the property ladder.
The Moneyexpert research
suggests it is also because 60 per cent more people are being rejected for
mortgages by nervous banks.
... The lack of choice and tighter terms comes as more
homeowners feel the effects of five interest rate rises since August last year,
as their generous fixed-rate deals taken out two years ago come to an end...
7b/ This bear is not capitulating
(The Telegraph, Tue 16 Oct)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/oct07/thisbearisnotcapitulating.htm
Comment: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the Telegraph’s leading economics commentator. The comments following
Ambrose’s articles are usually worth a read, and
usually indicate that if Telegraph readers are anything to go by, the
Article: A chorus of banks and City
gurus now inform me with almost triumphal self-confidence in their daily notes
that fears of economic contagion from the credit crunch have been discredited
as “unfounded” or “overblown” or plain “hokum”.
Well, Fed rescues are nice if you can get them.
Although, with Producer Price Inflation running at 4.4pc and the US dollar
index breaking through support to all-time lows, I should have thought that the
Fed’s room for manoeuvre was getting tight.
... The share price of the German steel trading firm Kloeckner plunged by a quarter last week after warning of a
“slump” in the steel market. It said prices for cold-rolled stainless steel had
fallen 35pc over the last six months.
A reader sent me these quotes from Bill Zolars, head of the trucking company YRC Worldwide. The
$10bn group has operations in 80 countries.
“The economy is driven by people making and shipping
stuff. They are not making and shipping as much right now, and we see that
every day,” he said.
... Well, let me go one up. I suspect the
The latest OECD trade data shows that German exports
fell 1.6pc in the second quarter, even before the credit crunch. This is
revealing.
Elga Bartsch, Morgan Stanley’s German
economist, says the country is far less robust than people realize.
Manufacturing orders contracted 0.9pc over the third quarter, although
Don’t let me even
start on the impending troubles in
7c/ '
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3067254.ece
Article:
Buy-to-let investors and sub-prime buyers have lapped
up about 20 per cent of new mortgage lending in recent years, but those markets
are now under stress, the analysts said.
Credit Suisse said investment buyers would sit out the
market as price rises tail off, and the drying up of wholesale funding that
nearly wiped out Northern Rock could force Bradford & Bingley
and Paragon, two of the biggest buy-to-let lenders, to rein in their lending.
This scenario would take many buyers out of the market.
The sub-prime market could be a bigger problem as the
credit crunch forces banks to pull products and ask for higher deposits.
Repossessions would then rise as customers coming off cheap deals faced huge
rises in borrowing costs.
"We think
The analysts believe more than £300bn of mortgage
balances have a loan-to-value of more than 70 per cent. They said lenders were
exposed to losses on sales forced by repossessions, which would be at about a
30 per cent discount to market value.
Banks could need an extra £500m of bad-debt provisions
based on current conditions; but, if house prices fell 10 per cent and arrears
doubled, provisions would need to be £3bn. If things got as bad as in the early
1990s, provisions could rocket to more than £8bn, though the analysts said this
was unlikely.
**********************************************************************************************************
8/ Coal for
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a3ZSy2m.LyD0&refer=energy
Article: Coal for delivery to
The futures rose to an all-time high today on
speculation power companies bought the contract to lock in prices before talks
at Coaltrans in
... Prices are up 55 percent this year.
... Prices have risen as suppliers struggle to meet
demand from
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9/ Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another
http://www.ifri.org/files/Russie/ifri_Gazprom_guillet_anglais_mars2007.pdf
(409 Kb)
Comment: This report was written by
Jérôme Guillet, an investment banker who is also one of the main contributors
to The Oil Drum:
Report: Summary
The recent crises over oil & gas deliveries from
article describes how these conflicts are in fact not
very different from those that took place in the early 1990s and reflect
behind-the-scene conflicts between powerful factions inside the Kremlin and in
[Concluding paragraph from final chapter: “A
Different Take on These Crises”]
The real long term worry is the inability of
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10/ Waking up to the truths of oil’s past, present
and future (Lloyd’s
List, Fri 12 Oct)
http://lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=1191760903152
Comment: This is the second Peak Oil
review article from Lloyd’s List (“The leading
maritime & transport portal”) in the last four months, here reviewing the
film “A Crude Awakening” (the previous article reviewed David Strahan’s “The Last Oil Shock”, http://lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=1183553733285).
And this review covers the most dire warnings from the film, the sort that
editors of mainstream newspapers tend to avoid, no matter how sympathetic they
are.
Article: THE makers of A Crude
Awakening mince their words only slightly, describing their investigation of
the peak oil phenomenon as “a naïve quest to examine the world’s
dependency on fossil fuels” and the results as “a bit of a downer”.
... Most professionals in energy shipping will be
aware of the concept of peak oil and the flurry of books forecasting the
twilight of civilisation that will follow the end of the era of hydrocarbons.
Gelpke
and McCormack’s film adds a little more to the pot of
knowledge about the past and present and hints at the doom-laden scenario to
come. But this is an admirably intelligent film — more An Inconvenient Truth
than Fahrenheit 9/11, lighter on the polemic, longer on information, albeit
with an ear for soundbite.
... It’s not as if Americans
shouldn’t be aware — mass oil consumption is a
product of the American century and the green revolution that allowed
increasing food production to feed an increased population. But the
... So have the warning signs been ignored? Experts
including consultant Colin Campbell, former Opec
secretary general Fadhil Chalabi
and Matt Simmons, suggest that the inflation of reserves by the main producer
countries is to blame, since high reserves mean a bigger Opec
quota. But it also means that those countries have become prisoners of their
budgets.
... This leads in two directions — the hunt for
alternatives and securing access to the remainder.
The outlook for the former is not good and the latter
is little better. The hydrogen economy promises much, but currently consumes
more energy than it produces. Ethanol, thanks to its inefficiency, is no
better. Replacing hydrocarbon power generation with nuclear might require the
equivalent of 10,000 power stations, exhausting global uranium deposits in 20
years. Solar and tidal power appear the only alternatives, but depend on huge
advances in technology to generate power consistently.
McCormack suggests that “the foremost thing we can do
is increase energy efficiency in certain parts of the world — the
... If the viewer hasn’t
experienced a downer yet, then the closing predictions might: the end of oil
will cause a seizing of the global economy so severe as to create a depression
at least as serious as that in the
Prices will rise to and stick at unheard of levels so
that consumers will begin to see the conveniences of their modern lives
replaced by the realties of the post-hydrocarbon economy.
For many, that seems a long way away. But Gelpke and McCormack leave me with two final thoughts —
that the latest estimates predict a steeper fall-off from peak production than
was previously thought and that the decline of the world’s
most important resource coincides with the industrialisation of the world’s two most populous countries. Just the former would
be bad enough, but the interdependence of the two creates a far greater long-term
problem, and despite his upbeat approach Gelpke can’t help admitting “that’s what
worries me most”.
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11/ Russian Oil - a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil
production and export
(Aram Mäkivierikko, Oct
2007)
http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Aram_Thesis.pdf
Comment: A new diploma thesis from Aram Mäkivierikko on Russian Oil,
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group. 100 pages.
Thesis: Oil is a heavily used natural
resource with a limited supply.
from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005.
The fall of the
This report studies different scenarios for Russian
oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil
Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined
with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of
3%, 4.5% or 6%).
In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the
oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best
case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the
Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s
level.
**********************************************************************************************************
12a/ Facing the looming energy crisis
(iafrica.com, Mon 15 Oct)
http://business.iafrica.com/transcripts/642900.htm
Comment: ASPO-South
Article: It's not rocket science: we
are nearing the point of peak oil production, the data suggests, and when that
happens, oil will start running out. That's when oil prices will really soar...
12b/ Conference: Preparing Southern Africa for Global Oil Depletion,
Details: